Fantasy basketball breakouts: Mark Williams, Keegan Murray and more

April 19, 2024

Last season, there were nine breakout players (ADP courtesy of NFBKC and final per-game rankings courtesy of Basketball Monster):

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (38 ADP – No. 3 ranking) — His points spiked from 24.5 to 31.4 per game with a 2% usage rate increase. The efficiency gains were enormous, as he finished 51/34/90 compared to 45/30/81 in 2021. He finished with 1 block per game, the first time over 0.8. He literally contributed everywhere without hurting anywhere.
Jaren Jackson Jr. (103 ADP – No. 12 ranking) — Scored two more points per game due to an increase in efficiency from 41% to 50%. He grabbed one more rebound per game and the blocks spiked from 2.3 to 3.
Lauri Markkanen (82 ADP – No. 19 ranking) — Traded from Cleveland to Utah, where he played 3.6 more minutes and saw a 6.8% usage bump. Shot a career-high 49% from the field, the 25.6 ppg marked the first time over 20 ppg and the rebounds increased from 5.7 to 8.6.
Nic Claxton (110 ADP – No. 24 ranking) — Became the bona fide No. 1 guy for the first time, starting all 76 games he played and seeing an increase of 9.2 minutes per game. Led the league in field goal percentage and provided the things you want from bigs: boards and blocks.
Mikal Bridges (66 ADP – No. 32 ranking) — Saw an increase in usage rate right before the trade deadline in Phoenix. Once he was traded to Brooklyn, it was wheels up. After being a 15-ish usage guy for most of his career, that number spiked to 30 with Brooklyn, and he was able to thrive in the role.
Trey Murphy III (179 ADP – No. 45 ranking) — Was thrust into a starting role, averaging 31 minutes per game, and flourished. He shot 48/40/90 with 6.3 attempts from downtown per game.
Cameron Johnson (109 ADP – No. 54 ranking) — After averaging around 25 minutes per game with the Suns, he garnered 30.8 after being traded to the Nets. Johnson averaged 2.1 dimes per game, the first time over 2.
Walker Kessler (137 ADP – No. 57 ranking) — There were playing time concerns for the rookie and questions about how his historic blocking prowess in college would translate. Kessler ended up starting 40 of 74 games, averaging 23 minutes and 2.3 blocks per game.
Jalen Williams (176 ADP – No. 73 ranking) — As with Kessler, there were concerns about playing time as a rookie. Williams ended up starting 62 of 75 games and averaged 30.3 minutes while shooting an impressive 52/35/81. Like with SGA, he contributed everywhere without hurting anywhere. That Sam Presti is pretty good at what he does.

The Shai bump was surprising because he was already at such a high level, but he was still so young. The JJJ ascension was easier to digest because bigs take some time to develop and he had increased the block rate the prior season. Claxton was the easiest to forecast because of the depth chart. Markkanen was murky because of the uncertainty of a new situation, but the risk/reward ratio definitely increased for the better. Bridges, Murphy and Cam Johnson were situations that were impossible to predict because of injuries and trades. Kessler and Jalen Williams were rookies and, historically, rookies have had a difficult time making an impact early on.

In the below piece, I will do my best to identify players who may take the next step in their development or are in situations that may afford them more opportunities. Players will be listed by team. ADP will once again be courtesy of NFBKC for eight drafts from June 1 to September 28. Keep in mind that these drafts are 8-cat, Roto and require two centers.

Saddiq Bey, ATL (126 ADP) — With John Collins now in Utah, Bey has an opportunity to soak up most of the power forward minutes in Atlanta. His ability to space the floor (40% from downtown last season) should give him the upper hand over Jalen Johnson. After shooting near 40% from the field for most of his career, he converted 47% of his attempts last season. Playing alongside Trae Young will provide plenty of good looks.

Mark Williams, CHA (94 ADP) — Steve Clifford has been tough on rookies during his coaching career, but he’s been fair, stating, “they have a chance every day to prove their worth through everything they do; arriving on time, attentiveness in film sessions, knowing the scouting repot and their level of play in 3 on 3 scrimmages during shootaround.”

Playing time is earned, and that’s what Williams did in his rookie season. After being inactive for much of the first two months, he started playing in the teens (minutes) then eventually garnered playing time in the high-20s to end the season. And he produced. There isn’t much competition on the depth chart and the return of LaMelo Ball to the mix should make his life easier on the offensive end.

Richaun Holmes, DAL (146 ADP) — I was pretty excited for Holmes early in the offseason, but that has dissipated somewhat after Jason Kidd mentioned that he may start Derek Lively. That said, I still have some doubts that Lively will make a significant impact this season. I will be getting some Lively shares to hedge, though. Holmes was terrible at the end of his run in Sacramento due to a multitude of factors: there were off-the-court issues, injuries and a scheme change in Sacramento. He has shown that he can play in the league, though, and I think he would be a potent offensive piece alongside Luka Doncic. Don’t forget that he’s had two Top 40 finishes in the past.

Isaiah Stewart, DET (146 ADP) — Troy Weaver loves Stewart and lauds him for his work ethic. He’s been so happy with his progress that he rewarded him with a four-year, $64 million extension in July. Stewart is slated to be the starting power forward for the Pistons and averaging 30 minutes doesn’t seem far fetched. While he’s not an expert shooter from downtown yet (32%), he does have the ability to space the floor, unlike Marvin Bagley. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see increases in efficiency due to his work ethic and the return of Cade Cunningham to the offensive mix.

Alperen Sengun, HOU (54 ADP) — Sengun may be priced correctly, so the final spread between preseason ADP and final ranking may be minimal. That said, I do think there’s a chance that Sengun takes that next step up. For starters, he’s extremely talented and skilled. Head coach Ime Udoka has acknowledged that, and I think he will maximize his strengths on both ends of the court. Udoka has talked about utilizing him more like Nikola Jokic on offense and eschewing drop coverage on defense.

Chet Holmgren, OKC (55 ADP) — Holmgren will technically be a rookie after missing all of last season due to injury. He’s not cheap, considering the injury history, but the upside is sky-high. With his awareness, length and ability to change the geometry on the defensive end, Holmgren should get plenty of rebounds and blocks. It’s on offense where he could really thrive. Holmgren does have the ability to shoot from downtown, but with all the playmakers on the Thunder and the type of offense they run, he could get so many easy looks.

Franz Wagner; Paolo Banchero, ORL (62 ADP) — Franz and Paolo have been going right next to each other in early drafts. I’m not sure how much better Franz can get because he’s already at a high level. Wait, isn’t that what was said of Shai last season? I’m definitely not seeing a Shai-like elevation, but it’s well within the range of outcomes that Franz averages over 20 points per game and increases the dimes and blocks. He has great length, tremendous IQ and is a very good defender.

As for Paolo, it all comes down to efficiency and defensive numbers. I’m not sure about his defensive contributions increasing, but I think the efficiency gets much better this season. The Team USA experience will have been a great experience for him and, at his size, he can get easier looks.

Tyrese Maxey, PHI (64 ADP) — This recommendation is predicated on the Sixers trading James Harden and not receiving a high-usage guard in return. If so, then Maxey has a chance of truly breaking out. He has tremendous speed, which helps him in transition and getting his shot up in the half court. For a player his size, shooting 48% from the field is… dare I say, Shai-esque. He could see a usage rate increase and 20+ points, 3 boards, 5 dimes and 1 steal aren’t out of the question.

Paul Reed, PHI (179 ADP) — The ADP has spiked recently after Nick Nurse said that he may play Reed at power forward alongside Joel Embiid. That could mean one minute or 20. I honestly don’t know what to make of this situation. Reed has often been a darling of the fantasy community but there’s a reason he hasn’t averaged more than 10 minutes per game in a season. Could it be coaching? Sure. Could it be things that we are not privy to behind the scenes? Definitely.

When I have seen Reed on the court, he has definitely flashed, but sometimes things change when a player is elevated into a higher role. Jalen Smith anyone? That said, minutes are gold and opportunity is king, so if Nurse is enamored with Reed and gives him the playing time, then Reed will smash his ADP. There’s also a chance that Nurse is just talking up a player in the offseason and, when things get real or he has had more exposure to Reed, that he remains a fringe player. This one comes down to cost and garnering more information.

Deandre Ayton, POR (66 ADP) — Ayton is going from a team with high-usage players in Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal to a Portland team that is young, developing and not looking to win right now. Ayton should see an increase in usage rate, which could get him to be more engaged at both ends of the floor.

Keegan Murray, SAC (100 ADP) — Murray started 78 of 80 games for the Kings in his rookie season, draining 41% of his looks from downtown. He was primarily used as a spot up player but that is not all he is. As The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie pointed out in a pod, Murray was the guy in college and is comfortable getting his own shot and being aggressive. If Murray can utilize those skills with the Kings, he’s going to make this team that much more dangerous than it already is and open up the ceiling for his fantasy prospects. The Kings played at the 12th-fastest pace last season and there are offensive weapons galore. There will be plenty of opportunities for fantasy goodies.

Scottie Barnes, TOR (57 ADP) — Barnes has garnered a usage rate in the 20% range. With Fred VanVleet gone, that number could increase. Barnes is already a good rebounder, disher of dimes and will rack up defensive stats. It’s the efficiency and ability to score from the outside which will unlock his ceiling. There’s a chance that Barnes puts it all together heading into his third season, especially since this could be “his” team if Pascal Siakam gets moved.

John Collins, UTA (78 ADP) — Player is not utilized properly and is sent packing to Utah. Where have we seen this story before? I have the utmost confidence that Will Hardy will put Collins in the best position to succeed. Whether he gets all the minutes at power forward remains to be seen, but if he does, then a replication of his 2019 season in which he averaged 21 points, 10 rebounds, 0.8 steals and 1.6 blocks is in the realm of possibilities.

Tyus Jones, WAS (81 ADP) — We have seen what Tyus can do when filling in for Ja Morant. Jones will be the starter for the Wizards and should soak up as many minutes as he can handle.

Daniel Gafford, WAS (95 ADP) — This situation reminds of Claxton’s from last season. The depth chart looks to be open for Gafford to shine and flourish. After never averaging more than 20 minutes a game, 28 to 30 seems like a viable outcome, especially since Mike Muscala is the primary backup at center. That said, head coach Wes Unseld didn’t unleash Gafford when Kristaps Porzingis was out last season.

OTHERS — Patrick Williams, Grant Williams, Bruce Brown, Obi Toppin, Zach Collins, Keyonte George

(Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)

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